Putin’s Potemkin Village
What can we learn about the nature of dictatorship when the Russian illusion shatters?
The Glass Russian Bear
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s canceled June 24th coup further cracked the “Strong as Bear” image of Russia held by the West, including that of a unified nationalistic loyalty compared to the Atlanticist powers divided by their culture war. To call this view a “Potemkin Village”, or a façade giving the false impression of a more positive situation, works on multiple levels.
Originally, this refers to a fake portable village erected by Grigory Potemkin, Russian empress Catherine the Great’s former lover, with the intent of astonishing Catherine as she embarked on her journey to Crimea in 1787.
Similarly, the alleged might of Russia was not a view foisted on just the West, but on Putin himself, who has been isolated from reality for a while. But unlike Catherine the Great who sentenced Yemelyan Pugachev to be drawn and quartered for his insurrection, Putin has so far left Prigozhin alone. The only forces that resisted this coup were seven aircraft, all of which were shot down by the Wagner troops, yet the resulting deaths of thirteen Russian airmen carry no punishment as well.
The reason for such leniency can only be attributed to fear, which Putin demonstrated by fleeing Moscow on his plane instead of facing the Wagner convoy like the God Emperor some believed him to be.
This fear is likely to stem from Putin’s awareness that in order for such a coup to even be attempted, Prigozhin would need to have the aid of power hungry generals on the inside, and any wrong move means a possible violent overthrow. Neither is there any justification to trust that the Russian people would have Putin’s back, as Wagner’s incursion into cities like Rostov were met with selfies, flowers, and hugs by the locals as well as their government officials.
So having all illusions of unity broken, the only place for Putin to go is deeper into the braintrust of his old guard. And it is this loving relationship beset on all sides by would-be usurpers which highlights a big problem with top-down dictatorship like the one in Russia today.
The Nature of Dictatorship
Dictatorships can only function if the elite believe in the dictator’s power, and the moment this belief fades, the house of cards comes tumbling down. Rightfully paranoid of being overthrown, the dictator surrounds himself with more loyalty instead of competence, as had exceedingly been the case with Putin throughout the years.
If before this coup, Putin could give newcomers like his former chef Prigozhin a chance to concentrate on the objective problems within the Russian military, he’s now exclusively bound to the old guard as the last time any level of autonomy was handed over, his worst fear came true.
So there is no turning back from receding further into isolation where all but the most tested toadies are seen as potential threats. This is why Putin created his own “Praetorian Guard'' known as the Rosgvardyia headed up by his former mob connected bodyguard Viktor Zolotov.
But just like with the Wagner Battalion pre-backstab, Putin has continued to siphon arms and technology from the rest of the Russian military to prop up this personal shield. He is certainly not wrong for being paranoid that those who backed Prigozhin want him gone, so the justification for such a shield exists. But securing your own defense through pissing off the military further means the chances of a future coup being successful exponentially increase as well.
There is no winning with such a system of top-down rule. For all the people attributing cracks in the Russian Bear to Putin’s unique disposition, how could it be otherwise if the system allows for such absolute power in the first place?
A better leader than Putin would have had the same problems of being tied up with pleasing those most loyal to him while demoting doom-sayers and getting rid of whoever’s seen to be a threat.
Stalin took the latter to its extremes with his mass purges and fear-based system of rule, while Nikita Khrushchev and those after him presided over a system which would eventually fall under the weight of its centralized chain of command. But that system at least had two competing power structures (post Stalin) of the KGB and Communist Party keeping each other in check, thus deteriorating slower than the paranoid fascism at work in Russia at the moment.
Regarding military might, this unchecked power leads to such levels of corruption that officials like Zolotov are given tanks in return for doing nothing. Likewise, the tanks themselves are in the same condition as those used during the Ukraine war due to corruption reaching down all the way to the manufacturing level with such issues as “fuel embezzlement”.
Lessons for the West
Let Russia be our canary in the fascist coal mine, especially for those who see such absolute power as the only way out of the problems going on in the West. This should by no means downplay the migrant riots we are currently seeing erupt in Western Europe or absurd anti First Amendment pronoun laws passed by ghouls in Michigan.
But at least with the US, there have been more positive signs of a pushback such as the Supreme Court ruling against tax funded college discrimination. None of these required a dictator but instead relied on the system which those on the far left and far right want to dismantle.
For both the leftist tankies and right wing ultra trads, Putin's Russia mirrored their desires of the ideal Potemkin Village while inflaming hatred for the full package of the West they grew up in and benefited from. Even if some US politicians are not too dissimilar from the toadies jumping around Putin, these unimpressive people still have to contend with checks and balances that are entirely absent from the Russian system.
This comes in the form of the aforementioned Supreme Court, voting with your feet to live in more compatible states, and being a nation of lawyers that can still achieve justice in the face of tyranny. Sure, nothing is ever static, so the generations to come may be less inclined to preserve our system, but this is what needs to be worked on through the development of a responsible elite, rather than an all powerful dictator, who like Putin, will take the country down with him before relinquishing any of that power.
BONUS: Check out the recent Break The Rules Stream on this subject with Curtis Yarvin and Vladislav Davidzon. 👇
Always a pleasure to read dissident thought on Russia from within the (alleged) dissident online sphere.